Non-performing Loans and Systemic Risk: Empirical Evidence to Tunisia and Morocco

Saoussen Ouhibi, Salma Ezzeddi

Abstract

This study investigates the determinant factors of systemic risk in Tunisia and Morocco. The comparative analysis showed that Inflation, domestic credit, gross capital formation, GDP, unemployment rate is significant with non-performing loans (source of systemic risk), in Tunisia. However, in Morocco, only the exchange rate and GDP are significant. This study used time series data of NPLs ratio and nine macroeconomic variables over the period of 1994-2014. Moreover, OLS was used to test the explanatory power of macroeconomic variables as determinants of NPLs.